Modi-fied Dragon
The following discussion took place in mid-June, and reflects the information available at that point of time. The output of the next round of discussions will be posted sometime in the first week of July. Subscribe to receive free updates.
The team settles down and faces the map of Eastern Ladakh which Major has placed on the wall. This, of course, sounds way cooler than saying that the team settled down in front of their laptops and stared at the map of Eastern Ladakh shared by Major.
The topic of discussion will be the latest Sino-India conflict. The aim is to arrive at a clearer picture, especially after the flash flood of opinions and conflicting reports.
Everyone and their uncle in the media are happy moving from speculation to speculation, with ‘sources’ being the umbrella word under which every fiction and assumption is being sold.
Major’s Squad is a team of four analysts with a keen interest in Geopolitics, Defence and National Security. Major Manik Jolly (Retd), Mihir, Firestarter, and Shaunak meet once a week to exchange views and share analysis over beer, creating a report of sorts on the hottest topic.
They do not call themselves experts. They do not have access to Sit Reps. They have no sources who could be quoted to justify any fantasy. They are analysts with books, knowledge, open sources and inquisitive minds, and they want to arrive at defendable conclusions.
Major: Whatever has happened in Ladakh in the last few weeks has left everyone confused. The issue being, the media is weaving story after story and experts are majorly colouring everything in their preferred colour, thus making it impossible for a common man to understand the issue. Let’s try and answer three basic questions here:
Have Chinese taken any land, as is being questioned by few and the government being blamed for having lost territory?
What happened on the night of 15/16 Jun that led to so many casualties on both sides?
What will happen now?
These are the questions every Indian has and sadly answers to them are being lost in overly complicated analysis and military highfalutin. Mihir, what’s your opinion on question A?
Mihir: No. We may or may not have not lost territory. Losing territory is a matter of interpretation. Firstly, in the Pangong Tso area…
Major: Wait, wait. Let us simplify the matter of the map at hand for everyone to be on the same page. I see the whole country talking about Finger this and Finger that…
Firestarter: Too much confusion if you ask me.
Major: Yes, that’s right. But honestly very few understand the geography of the area, or there would not be so much confusion.
Pangong Lake is the beautiful 135 km landlocked lake that we all saw in the final scene of the popular movie ‘Three Idiots’, in Ladakh, on Chinese border. On the far end of the lake, there is a mountainous feature that has 8 spurs coming down into the lake also known now as the infamous ‘8 fingers’. This is where the chaos starts! Keep in mind that the LAC (Line of Actual control) has no fixed version till now. Both countries have their own version. The confusion has been decades long due to treaties, British, Nehru, War, Occupation etc. We will discuss that in detail some other time.
Now, imagine these 8 fingers as a chess board which has 8 lines, with India sitting on one side and China on the other. According to India, the entire chess board, all 8 lines belong to us, but we have had control only till line 4. Chinese on the other hand, assert that LAC runs through the second line (Finger 2) asking for control of 6 lines from their side, but only had bases till now at line 8 and posts beyond that in an area called Sirijap. However, they regularly patrolled the region. Both countries did, without much altercations.
In 1999, when India’s deployment thinned in the area due to focus on Kargil, Chinese used this opportunity to build a road till Line 4. This road has been there for 20 years! In recent development, in Apr/May Chinese moved ahead and occupied heights at Line 4 and have built massive numbers of fortifications between Line 4 and 5, with around 20 forward positions that are on the ridge line of Finger 4 itself. This has been viewed as a tactical loss and encroachment of territory by many. So, what do you think Mihir?
Mihir: India’s forwardmost post is an ITBP post between Fingers 3 and 4, from the last 10 years. We may have exercised dominance over the Western end of Finger 4, but did not control the Eastern end. Rather, the Chinese had road access to it since. This is all part of a disputed area, where both parties claim to have the right to maximum area. However, if the government has said that Chinese are not in our territory, it means Finger 4 may be the new defined and accepted LAC. This is a smart move from Indian side to not only end up capturing half the disputed area, but locking Chinese down at finger 4. Now any further move from them will be seen as breach of accepted international border, rather than movement in a disputed area. Government refused to take Chinese bait and has smoothly managed to negate Chinese claims till finger 2.
I’d also like to add that the land border is where India has attained a degree of parity with the Chinese PLA; and in some sectors, even enjoys local superiority. As India continues to build border roads at a rapid clip, any Chinese advantages will start to steadily diminish, forcing the PLA to commit a greater quantity of resources and manpower to the border. Such deployments are not cheap for China. Ladakh and the Western Tibetan plateau are thousands of kilometers away from China’s demographic and economic centres of gravity, making any presence there expensive to set up and sustain. The road and rail to the region are tenuous, making them vulnerable to Indian interdiction.
To make matters worse for the Chinese, the PLA’s modernization plans call for a reduction in the number of personnel, which would free up the budget and resources required to build a large, high-tech naval and air fleets to dominate the seas. Given that a majority of those cuts are being applied to the ground forces, it is hard to imagine the PLA green-lighting a permanent military build-up in their Western sector.
Major: Well said! Now let’s have a look at the Galwan Valley issue, the fight in which 20 of our brave soldiers were martyred and built up in the region. Shaunak has been gathering all the data on this, let him take a shot at it.
Shaunak: You’re asking me to cover this because you don’t agree with me and you want to argue.
Major: Well, let’s argue when we reach the fantasy version of stories peddled by overenthusiastic journalists in an axiomatic manner. Before that, why don’t you tell us what’s the issue there and what’s happening now?
Shaunak: The immediate bone of contention, that supposedly got China activated lies in this region. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) got activated along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, because of the construction of the 255-km long Darbuk-Shyokh-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) all-weather road. But given the pressure Xi is under domestically after the way the CCP handled the Coronavirus pandemic, as well as the economic pressure building up in response to the National Security Law in Hong Kong, this might also be his attempt at shoring up domestic support by picking a fight with a neighbour.
Major: What economic pressure?
Shaunak: Trump is working on revoking Hong Kong’s favoured trade status. The CCP elite use Hong Kong to transfer their riches out of China. Companies controlled by them are also said to use Hong Kong’s tariff exemptions to circumvent the tariffs he imposed on China. If these are affected, the personal wealth of the CCP elite gets hit. That would be bad for Xi, because while he doesn’t have to worry about democratic elections, he has to keep CCP factions happy. But more on that on another day. Returning to the DSDBO road. It is a great development because it connects DBO, the northernmost corner of Indian territory in Ladakh, also known as Sub-Sector North, directly to Leh, creating a solid supply route to reinforce DBO more effectively when required. It also gives access to the section of the Tibet-Xinjiang highway that passes through Aksai Chin, to the Indian Army. The road runs almost parallel to the LAC at Aksai Chin, along with 37 prefabricated military truss bridges. The Border Roads Organization (BRO) is expected to complete the work on the strategic road including eight bridges by end of this year.
This was a big red flag for China and they came with heavy building materials and intention to interfere with our plans. Shyok river, parallel to the road, is connected by Galwan river, flowing from West in Galwan valley and further from Aksai Chin. It is in this Galwan valley, that Chinese occupied the heights, threatened Indian positions in the valley and when de-escalation was agreed to, at a position on the LAC, called PP 14, attacked the negotiation party.
Major: Got it! So, are there any Chinese there now?
Shaunak: No. After the Lt Gen level talks on 6th June, it was decided by both the armies to pull back troops from aggressive deployment. When certain Chinese units refused to remove their tents and building material from PP 14, a team led by Col S Babu, CO of 16 Bihar went to talk to them about the agreed upon terms and ensure that they move. The party was attacked then, and later more scuffles happened, that led to us losing 20 and Chinese losing 43 soldiers. I will not repeat the details of their fight as it has been covered adequately by many. Plus, recently the hostages were released by Chinese and…
Major: How do you know there were hostages? Because one journalist and channel started this and another caught on? How did he defend his stand? By claiming this was told to him by a source? So Indian Army ends up having hostages with enemy troops who have just killed 20 of ours in a pre-planned cold-blooded ambush, but connives with the Indian government to not publicize that? What if the Chinese would have killed them? What about when they come back and narrate the story? Wouldn’t government feel stupid for not declaring hostages and lying to the families of hostages? Would they rather not announce it and hope for the same political and international pressure as was with the case of Abhinandan. IF you don’t acknowledge your hostages, you leave them at mercy of captors. No government can afford to do that. Remember how this hostage story was hardly ever mentioned later on? Why? Don’t they deserve a Heroes’ welcome? What happened to the media that would not keep quiet on Abhinandan all three days? These lives don’t matter? And please don’t bring up logic of back channel negotiations? Because it takes time for all that. Hostages with enemies, that too after recent bloodbath, are in danger of getting hurt from that moment on.
Shaunak: So, you mean to say there were no hostages taken? And this overexcited journalist made it up?
Major: Yes, exactly that. No hostages is not sensational enough. These people build from speculation to speculation. They keep reporting tons of things; do you think the Army would launch an attack because some journalist said there is a build-up of Chinese troops in certain areas. No, because the Army understands the nature of this sensationalism. My point is, if you do not have enough evidence to prove there were no hostages, you also do not have enough to prove that there were. So why make up a story to feed one fantasy? Imagine what it does to thousands of families who have their family members posted there? This was exceptionally irresponsible, and the government should take a note. What if an old mother had a heart attack because she could not get in touch with her son and imagined he had been taken hostage? Would the fake reporting gang take responsibility? I’d like to also say here that we will behave like analysts and act on data available to us. We will never take cover of ‘sources’ to plunge truth under the surface. These are not the circumstances to twist information to suit narratives. Lives are at stake. To sum up, let's not believe things that are not corroborated by official sources.
Shaunak: But the official sources are not saying anything!
Major: Let us wait patiently and depend on other fool proof sources like Sat imaging and history! The Army is under no obligation to share its information with common people at time of crisis. Maybe they will release details later. For now, we should trust them and support them by not baying for their blood for details.
Shaunak: What next? Firestarter had some views on that. Plus, he had some details on what if India and China go to war. Let's discuss that in detail next week. A hostility scenario. Lets get into some more detail on geopolitics of this, especially since India, China and Russia are spending time together in Moscow. Firestarter, let's hear from you.
Firestarter: Few hours back, some sat imaging has shown new construction at PP-14 - everyone is debating “who” is responsible, but that’s merely one of the many developments. Also, as you said earlier, the ridge line at Finger 4 has been taken effectively by PLA troops. India has managed to drive PLA back from all occupation from it’s “actual” side of the LAC. But China has started massive construction efforts in Galwan valley. For now, based on the information that we do have, the following might be the course of things to come:
The Indian Army has allowed the use of weapons in the area and has also acquired specialized riot gear, either of which, depending on the local commander's discretion, can give a fighting edge to troops or at least act as a deterrent against unprovoked Chinese attacks. Both sides continue to build on deployment heavily.
Satellite imagery and OSINT sources will continue to scrounge the area for information, and it will be near impossible to deploy or develop without getting noticed.
In the longer run, this could be the first step towards finalizing the LAC. China still holds Aksai Chin and we are not getting it back any time sooner. But we are dealing with a country that did around a thousand plus border transgressions along the LAC in past few years. This can start to control that.
Indian didn’t whine or blink, it sets a new precedent and China will have to start thinking before taking us for granted.
China has ruined its reputation globally and coupled with COVID crisis arising from China issue, there might be difficult days ahead for Xi and his team. Alternatively, it also raises the risk of conflict as they seek a diversion by escalating with India.
Increased deployment from both sides means massive new infrastructural development in border areas. Roads, bridges, airfields etc.
Right now, it’s a stalemate. India’s capabilities are not insignificant. Many are panicking and writing off Indian capabilities. I would submit that despite the challenges we would face in a conflict, the Indian Armed forces do possess certain advantages in terms of basing, lines of communication and training that can allow them to give a harsh response to the PRC deployment. China would seek to counter that by expanding the conflict and roping Pakistan in. We need to take a 2 front scenario now as a given and start focusing on defense and domestic industrial capacity on a war footing.
That’s more or less right now what I can think of. India’s increasing military and economic capabilities mean that the clock is ticking. In a few years, the capabilities we deploy would reduce the disparity in force structure or capabilities we currently perceive. This is not to China’s interest. A conflict “sooner”, suits them. But I’ll be happy to talk to you about the hostility scenario next week.
Major: Fair enough - we have to discuss this in detail I guess. Alright, my beer is done so I guess it’s time to call quits for now. Meanwhile let us not fall prey to gossip and propaganda and stick to data and official information given by the Army and government. Best wishes and Jai Hind.
Very thorough and engaging discussion.
On the hostages part - in some of Nitin's video, he mentioned that during Fisticuffs during stand-offs there used to be occasions when soldiers would be taken by opposite side but are later returned. This has happened from both sides in the past. Fmr Gen VK Singh also mentioned that it happens but nothing much serious an issue that it needs to go public. Now from what I feel is this journo (and later others) jumped the gun by calling it 'hostage' situation and then when they got some more clarity conveniently hid their major screw up away. This melee happened in dark night and few soldiers from either end must have ended up in captivity but got released later, end of story. It's our sensationalism hungry media and their irresponsible behaviour that needs to be called out. Major did that but the silence from other end was loud enough.
The problem with the media in these times is that there are just too many of them not counting the worst of them, the social media. They think war is a cricket match and should have live commentry and the couch experts give their valued opinion about how Sachin should have batted or Whether spin or pace attack was necessary. In defence matters of secrecy, disinformation, propoganda has crucial role. One has to trust the govt and army and reserve expert opinion toll the matter is over.